NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

FEBRUARY 19-26, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2012-02-27T19:06:00.009-05:00

official product of... New England NAO

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to weakly Positive March 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive... trending neutral March 8-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to weakly Positive March 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive... trending neutral March 8-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to weakly Positive March 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Positive... trending neutral March 8-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to weakly Positive March 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be increasingly Positive... then trend neutral March 8-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive February 28-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral to weakly Negative March 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative... trending neutral March 8-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral.  The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive February 28-29. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral to weakly Negative March 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Negative... trending neutral March 8-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.


The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive.. trending increasingly Positive March 1-7. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 8-12.
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly to Moderately Positive March 1-7. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 8-12.

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive March 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Negative... trending neutral March 8-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Weak blocking over southeastern Canada in association with a brief short-lived -AO & -NAO influence, will allow for coastal redevelopment of low pressure on Wednesday, February 29. My initial timing of this potential deviation within the overall longwave pattern, was slightly off. However, this system has the potential to be interior New England's first moderate snowfall to this-point (especially over western & parts of northern New England)... of the meteorological 2011-12 Winter season. Due to progression of the Phase 2-5 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in the equatorial Pacific, the pattern will again become progressive... with a return to an intense Zonal flow of Pacific origin, across North America. Temperatures will be seasonal to slightly above normal March 1-4, allowing for milder systems to effect the region... as the upper-steering of the 500-millibar Height Pattern shifts the existing Polar Vortex over northwestern Canada. This pattern will promote a re-establishment of the +AO & +NAO influence, as temperatures rise to well above normal levels in New England... March 5-12.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: As the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, MJO wave progresses through phases 3-5... a strong Pacific jet-stream (in association with a +EPO pattern) will be the dominant feature. Of note, research has shown that the initial effects of a solar maximum are first observed at the equator... then expand north & south in-latitude. This is important to consider due to a highly active MJO influence (over the equatorial Pacific) for much of the Northern Hemisphere's cold season, which could be connected to the current observed solar maximum... in association to the
9-11 year Schwabe Cycle. The overall state of the
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also effected by this factor, as Pacific sea surface temperatures rise... with the establishment of weak El Nino conditions (as we enter the Northern Hemisphere's warm season).
As for the extended & immediate long range, the current MJO wave will continue to progress through phase 5... and enter phase 6 during the second week of March. This will promote a re-establishment of the Negative EPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... which could encourage the AO & NAO to briefly fall Negative around March 14-16.

Prepared by: Daniel Viens, of...

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2012-02-16T14:38:00.008-05:00

Current North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Highlights, are for the indice at +0.1 Standard Deviation (SD) above normal-mean... to become weakly Positive in the short-term. The above chart is from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, CO., depicting Solar Cycle Progression. One can clearly see how intense the 10.7cm Radio Flux (sfu) was during the absent New England Winter of 2001/02... before significantly falling to an observed solar minimum during 2006 - 2010, but look how the values significantly rose during 2011/12 (season) as we entered a solar maximum! The predicted values do not show a solar minimum becoming re-established until around 2018, but does this mean high latitude blocking events (in association with a sustained
-AO / -NAO) could be effected by high solar activity until 2018? I would answer NO, because even if high solar activity is a factor in the 2012/13 Winter season... it would not be as intense as this season (due to the decrease in 10.7cm Radio Flux values as suggested by the chart).
As for the short-term, due to the overall progressive nature of this pattern... I do not see anything truly resembling Winter in New England. However, I am cautiously optomistic that there will be another cold shot around February 22-27... potentially being more than just a cold blast as the NAO falls very weakly Negative before significantly moderating! (To expand on thoughts generated from the previous weeks NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW, I am planning on re-introducing CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS every other week)

Prepared by: Daniel Viens

JANUARY 29 - FEBRUARY 5, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2012-02-07T21:00:00.037-05:00

official product of... New England NAO

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 9-14. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to weakly Positive February 15-19. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral... trending very weakly Negative February 20-25.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 9-14. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to weakly Positive February 15-19. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral... trending weakly Negative February 20-25.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative February 9-14. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to weakly Positive February 15-19. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral... trending weakly Negative February 20-25.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative February 9-14. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to weakly Positive February 15-19. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 20-25.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be weakly to moderately Positive February 9-14. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive to neutral February 15-19. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be neutral... trending very weakly Positive February 20-25.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be weakly to moderately Positive February 9-14. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive to neutral February 15-19. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be neutral... trending weakly Positive February 20-25.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.


The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently moderately Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Negative... trending neutral February 9-12. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be very weakly Positive to neutral February 13-21.
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive... trending increasingly Positive February 9-12. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive to neutral February 13-21.

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 9-14. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive February 15-19. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 20-25.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: A strengthening upper-level ridge will build over the east-central Pacific... as southeastern Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies significantly cool due to progression of the Phase 6-8 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave. In reaction, the Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) will become increasingly Positive... as the existing Polar Vortex over central Canada shifts east-southeast, over southeastern Canada. This significant change will encourage the AO to trend increasingly Negative as the Vortex becomes re-established. The 500-millibar Height Pattern will feature an amplified meridional north to south flow... encouraging a broad trough over eastern North America, that will promote below to well below normal temperatures in New England February 10-12. During this period, strong amplification will also encourage the NAO to fall very weakly Negative... increasing the possibility of coastal development February 10-14.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: The purpose of
New England NAO is to present an accurate (as possible) description of current & upcoming changes within the overall longwave pattern across North America... but what went terribly wrong with my initial impression of this upcoming pattern change? There were many similarities this season, to the 2006/07 Winter season... although no two seasons are identical the similarities were initially striking. For this reason, I had originally thought that the pattern change around January 12-13... was representative of an entirely new pattern for the second-half of Winter. After this change, as the trough lifted-out and the overall pattern became progressive again... I was concerned that a true pattern change wouldn't happen at all this Winter and reflected back to 2001/02. If I was to spell-out human induced Global warming as many people believe... I would be truly misleading the public. But, there is an influence! No, this time the Pacific pattern would be quite supportive for sustained blocking to occur in eastern North America... it's origin is outside of Earth.
In the absent New England Winter of 2001/02, there was extremely high solar activity on the sun... it was a solar maximum known as the 9-11 year Schwabe Cycle. During a solar maximum, a large pronounced area of Sunspots exist on the solar disk, that significantly influences an overall +AO & +NAO pattern by strongly effecting downward propagation of Poleward Stratospheric Sudden Warming episodes... thus limiting long term blocking events in association with a
-AO & -NAO. This season, like the 2001/02 season... is a solar maximum (Washington Post). The difference between this season and 2001/02... is that high latitude blocking has been observed, especially over parts of eastern Europe & Asia. However, the observed solar maximum in 2001/02 was more intense... which could explain why isolated blocking events occured this season in-contrast to 2001/02.
The Question is... where are we heading from this-point? The answer is that again we will moderate to seasonal, then slightly above normal temperatures (as the cold trough lifts-out of New England) February 15-19. The pattern may briefly amplify with another cold shot February 20-25... but again become progressive with a significant moderation, as the month of February 2012 closes. Thanks again Bob Connor, it's kind people like you that encourage me to try harder!

Prepared by: Daniel Viens, of...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY NEW ENGLAND NAO!

2012-01-28T17:18:00.540-05:00

On this one-year anniversary of New England NAO... I thought I would reflect back a year ago, to the beginning. This site in many ways was something that I had always wanted to see to some level, I can remember Googleing phrases related to New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)... but very few sites directly connected the overall NAO influence to New England. The sites that were of interest to me, were quite informative, but what I was really looking for was the interpretation of Indice Forecasts... & their overall effect on the New England Region. I decided to take that idea into consideration... while posting as a member of Todd Gross' NE-Weather Spotter Network in 2002. I really enjoyed posting on Todd Gross' weather spotter site, and intend to continue to be a member of his established weather enthusiast community. However, it didn't seem proper to post about Indice Forecasts in times of tranquil conditions, especially during the warm season... so I would mainly post in-advance of significant pattern changes during the Winter season. For this reason, I came to realize that I needed a place of my own to truly express my thoughts... which is why I established New England NAO. Presently, since the establishment of the site, I have only been updating continuously during the Winter... but I may update year-round as the site continues to grow.

Even though I am not a professional meteorologist, I have learned alot about meteorology in general from my close friends who work professionally as meteorologists (John Hockridge of New England Weather Associates & George Trottier formerly of WNAW 1230 A.M. N. Adams, MA.)... and through my own self-taught research concerning interpretation of the Teleconnection Indice Forecasts. Because of the increasing popularity of the site... I started a general form of consulting, explaining to the public, the upcoming effects the Indice Forecasts will have on the New England Region. This is aired as a radio program known as New England NAO "Talks Weather", Thursday Afternoon's at 5:30 P. M. on WBRK (Inc.)
1340 A.M. Pittsfield, MA.
(For more information on

New England NAO official products... please visit

NE-NAO - LEGEND.)

Or click the Legend... Above (right-side of post)

Since the Beginning, New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), now commonly known as simply
New England NAO... has continued to grow through reflection of it's purpose. The site has generated a theme through the help of Dreamstime.com & LogoSnap.com, plus a large part of artistic talent from myself, as author of New England NAO.

The theme of New England NAO:

1. Page Design

A. The title background theme is an exclusive photo from Dreamstime.com, it is a view of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole... the photo is representative of an area where the heart of high latitude blocking originates in respect to the Negative Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). *(The newly designed Main_Title logo now replaces this background theme... which strongly promotes the site.)

B. The general page background theme is an exclusive template by Airyelf through blogger.com, it is a view of fair weather Cumulus clouds (within a bright blue sky)... the photo is representative of the calmer weather related effects in respect to the Positive Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Positive Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
*(This general page background theme remains the exclusive template used... which strongly blends all the elements on the site.)

2. Page Logos (all custom logos are designed by the author of New England NAO through LogoSnap.com) There are two standard logos and one variation... as well as other featured logos designed by the author.

A. This original standard logo features a true standard blue & red title, the rising arrow is deep red & the falling arrow is deep blue.

B. This second standard logo features a true standard blue & red title, the rising arrow is also standard red & the falling arrow is standard blue.

C. This third variant logo features a true standard blue title only, both the rising & falling arrows are also standard blue.

3. Featured Images

A. This exclusive photo from Dreamstime.com is representative of New England's Four Seasons, expressing each seasons touch as experienced in New England.

B. This photo taken by the author of New England NAO on March 18, 2009, is of the HOOSAC TUNNEL (West Portal) North Adams, MA. (pronounced Hoosic), where I live very close to. My 4 year-old nephew (at the time of picture) Dominick, of Savoy, MA. is standing at the entrance to the portal.
The photo is representative of what could be known unofficially as western Massachusetts' Big Dig... of it's time, due to cost and length of time in-construction--from 1850 - 1874. Also, the lives of 195 miners were lost during the time of construction... making this railroad landmark historically significant to the Commonwealth & all of New England. From the West Portal in N. Adams, MA. through to the East Portal in Florida, MA. (at the Deerfield River), is a total length of 4.74 miles. For complete information on the HOOSAC TUNNEL, please visit HoosacTunnel.net. For more information on the New England region (& government entities) please visit
New England Town... defined by Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia.

4. The Beginning

On Thursday, January 27, 2011 New England NAO appeared on a simple blogger.com Awesome Inc. Template under the title:
New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Prepared by : Daniel Viens

JANUARY 22, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2012-01-25T20:55:00.057-05:00

official product of... New England NAO

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative January 26-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will remain weakly Negative January 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative January 26-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will remain weakly Negative January 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive January 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be neutral... trending increasingly Positive February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive January 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be neutral... trending increasingly Positive February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.


The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive... trending neutral January 26 to February 3. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be neutral to weakly Negative February 4-7.
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Negative... trending neutral to very weakly Positive January 26 to February 3. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 4-7.

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Due to rapid changes in the eastern Pacific in association to increased Phase 5 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity... the pattern has again become progressive. These changes will limit classic blocking from taking place in-relation to establishment of a true -AO & -NAO pattern... allowing for milder systems to effect New England. The Polar Vortex has shifted over northwestern Canada & Alaska... allowing for above normal temperatures in New England January 26-28. The 500-millibar Height Pattern in association to increasing MJO activity will promote a strengthening Positive EPO, but significant changes will occur again... as the intense MJO influence weakens, entering Phase 6 February 2-4. Temperatures will average seasonal... as MAJOR changes take place within the overall longwave pattern January 29 to February 2. These changes will promote a re-establishment of the Negative WPO/EPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... that will encourage an overall
-AO / -NAO pattern beyond February 4.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: A strengthening upper-level ridge will build over the east-central Pacific... as southeastern Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies significantly cool due to progression of the Phase 6-7 MJO. In reaction, the Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) will become increasingly Positive... as the existing Polar Vortex over Northeastern Alaska & the Yukon shifts east February 2-4. This significant change will encourage the AO to trend increasingly Negative as the Vortex becomes re-established over east-central Canada. The 500-millibar Height Pattern will feature a highly amplified meridional flow... encouraging a deep trough over eastern North America, that will promote below to well below normal temperatures in New England February 6-14. During this period, intense amplification will also encourage the NAO to fall Negative... significantly increasing the possibility of classic coastal development February 5-15. - Prepared by: Daniel Viens

JANUARY 8-15, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2012-01-16T11:23:00.150-05:00

official product of... New England NAO

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will remain neutral... January 16-19. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be increasingly Positive January 20-27. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28 to February 4.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will remain neutral... January 16-19. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be increasingly Positive January 20-27. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28 to February 4.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will remain neutral... January 16-19. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be weakly Positive January 20-27. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral to weakly Negative January 28 to February 4.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will remain neutral... January 16-19. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be weakly Positive January 20-27. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral to weakly Negative January 28 to February 4.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will remain neutral... trending very weakly Negative January 16-19. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will then be increasingly Negative January 20-27. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral January 28 to February 4.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will remain neutral... trending very weakly Negative January 16-19. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will then be increasingly Negative January 20-27. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral January 28 to February 4.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.


The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Negative... trending neutral January 16-18. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be increasingly Positive January 19-27, then trend neutral to very weakly Negative January 28 to February 2.
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently moderately Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Negative January 16-18. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral... trending very weakly Positive January 19-27, then trend neutral to weakly Negative January 28 to February 2.

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral... January 16-19. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will then be increasingly Positive January 20-27. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28 to February 4.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Rising heights over the east-central Pacific... will encourage a strengthening Negative EPO Ridge to expand northeast. Positioning the Polar Vortex over east-central Canada, however due to rapid changes in the eastern Pacific in association to increased Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity... the pattern will again become progressive. These changes will limit classic blocking from taking place in-relation to establishment of a true -AO & -NAO pattern... allowing for milder systems to effect New England, followed by a weakened polar front January 17-20. As these changes occur, the Polar Vortex will shift over northwestern Canada... as temperatures moderate to above normal levels over New England January 21-24.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: The 500-millibar Height Pattern in association to increasing MJO activity will promote a strengthening Positive EPO, as the Vortex shifts over northwestern Canada & Alaska. Temperatures will be above to briefly much above normal in New England January 25-31, but significant changes will occur again... as the intense MJO influence weakens beyond February 2. These changes will promote a re-establishment of the Negative WPO/EPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... that may encourage an overall -AO / -NAO pattern beyond February 4. - Prepared by: Daniel Viens

Long Range Weather Forecast for the US

2012-01-15T07:54:00.003-05:00

By Ivor Goligher

In other countries, weather conditions can easily be determined. However, in the US, it may be a difficult task. The reason for this is mainly the US is a big country, and it is divided into a lot of different regions. There may be some things that are similar with different areas. For example, areas in the upper part of the country is likely to have a cold and wet climate, while the lower part cooler but still comfortable. Generally, this can be said however, due to the different phenomena happening in our world, it is difficult to determine what the weather is going to be like.

There are already a lot of natural disasters that may affect the long term weather forecast in the US. One would be the recent volcano activity around the world. The very strong and destructive earthquake that hit Japan this year also affects the global weather. Also, the earthquake in Indonesia a few years ago has changed the rotation of the earth slightly. These tragedies may be small but it can bring large amounts of impact to the world and may be factors to change in weather on the long run.

Consider when a volcano eruption occurs. During an eruption, a volcano releases a huge amount of hot, molten lava and spurts ashes into the air. Those ashes are not gone in just one day. While they exist, they can affect clouds and cloud formation, possibly increasing or decreasing the amount of precipitation that the cloud can give off. Even disasters that are not natural may still have an effect on the environment. Nuclear power plants that may have been leaking or blown up may cause disastrous changes to the environment.

The next step is to make sure that your property is in general good condition. If your building is in a bad way any problems could become dangerous during extreme weather. After you've sorted out your quotes for property insurance you should thoroughly check your building for things like:

* Loose tiles * Weak mortar on the property's roof * Broken brickwork on the chimney * Dodgy roof stacks * Corroded nails * Unstable brickwork * Overgrown trees near the building * Weak fences * Rickey satellite dishes and aerials

Ash and dust introduced into the atmosphere by volcanic eruptions can lower the earths surface temperatures by reducing the amount of sunlight that reaches the earth. There are many other variables in producing the weather you experience.

While you cannot control the weather you can be prepared for it. Listen to your local forecast when threatening weather is possible especially if you are planning on travelling. Have a emergency kit in your car at all times and use common sense before heading out into inclement weather.

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JANUARY 1, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2012-01-06T21:09:00.158-05:00

official product of... New England NAO

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral January 6-11. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be neutral to very weakly Negative January 12-14. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative January 15-20.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently weakly Positive.
The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral January 6-11. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be neutral to very weakly Negative January 12-14. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative January 15-20.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 6-11. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be neutral to very weakly Negative January 12-14. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be increasingly Negative January 15-20.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 6-11. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be neutral to very weakly Negative January 12-14. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative January 15-20.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 6-11. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral... January 12-14. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will trend very weakly Positive January 15-20.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive.
The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 6-11. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral... January 12-14. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will trend very weakly Positive January 15-20.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.


The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently moderately Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive to neutral January 6-9. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 10-12, then trend increasingly Negative January 13-18.
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive to neutral January 6-9. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 10-12, then become increasingly Negative January 13-18.

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly Positive to neutral January 6-11. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will then be very weakly Positive... trending neutral January 12-14. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Negative January 15-20.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: As the Positive EPO pattern continues... temperatures will be above to well above normal in New England, January 6-10. However, with the progression of the MJO through Phases 6-1... the intense convection near the date-line will weaken, in-reaction the Dominant Sub-tropical jet-stream will start to loose it's identity. The beginning of this MAJOR change with the Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Pattern... will encourage the WPO to fall very weakly Negative around January 10. An intense low pressure system will develop on the leading-edge of this significant change, with it's influence felt as heavy rain transitioning to mixed precipitation, in New England January 11-12. Meanwhile, strong downward propagation of Poleward Stratospheric Sudden Warming... will push the Polar Vortex south, over east-central Canada. As the Vortex expands to the southeast, an intense polar front will attach itself to the intensifying Low... that will push through New England January 12, with falling temperatures as the system lifts northeast.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: Rising heights over the east-central Pacific... will encourage a strengthening Negative EPO Ridge to expand northeast. Dropping the Polar Vortex over east-central Canada, to a position around southeast Hudson Bay as the AO becomes increasingly Negative January 16-19. An intense, bonafide Arctic front will invade New England around this point, that will encourage coastal development as the NAO falls Negative! (Although no two seasons are identical, the pattern is unquestionably quite similar in many aspects... to that of the 2006/07 Winter Season.) - Prepared by: Daniel Viens

DECEMBER 25, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-12-29T21:02:00.007-05:00

NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be increasingly Positive January 1-4. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be very weakly Positive to neutral January 5-9. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral to weakly negative January 10-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be increasingly Positive January 1-4. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be very weakly Positive to neutral January 5-9. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral to weakly negative January 10-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly to moderately Positive January 1-4. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be very weakly Positive to neutral January 5-9. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly negative January 10-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly to moderately Positive January 1-4. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be very weakly Positive to neutral January 5-9. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly negative January 10-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive January 1-4. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be very weakly Positive to neutral January 5-9. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will remain neutral... then trend very weakly Positive January 10-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive January 1-4. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be very weakly Positive to neutral January 5-9. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will remain neutral... then trend very weakly Positive January 10-14.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

DECEMBER 18, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-12-21T21:26:00.010-05:00

NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative December 23-26. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be increasingly Positive December 27-31. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly negative January 1-7.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative December 23-26. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be increasingly Positive December 27-31. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly negative January 1-7.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative December 23-26. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be increasingly Positive December 27-31. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will become neutral January 1-7.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative December 23-26. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be increasingly Positive December 27-31. The GFS later indicates that the AO will become neutral January 1-7.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Positive December 23-26. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will become neutral December 27-31. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will remain neutral... then trend very weakly Positive January 1-7.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Positive December 23-26. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will become neutral December 27-31. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will remain neutral... then trend very weakly Positive January 1-7.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

DECEMBER 11, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-12-12T20:58:00.013-05:00

NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral December 14-16. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative December 17-21. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative to neutral December 22-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Positive.  The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral December 14-16. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative December 17-21. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative to neutral December 22-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral December 14-16. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be increasingly Negative December 17-21. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative to neutral December 22-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral December 14-16. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be increasingly Negative December 17-21. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative to neutral December 22-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Positive December 14-16. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be increasingly Positive December 17-21. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive to neutral December 22-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Positive December 14-16. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be increasingly Positive December 17-21. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive to neutral December 22-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly to moderately Negative December 14-18. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will become neutral, then very weakly Positive December 19-24.
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive to neutral December 14-18. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will become weakly Positive December 19-24.


  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral December 14-16. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be increasingly Negative December 17-21. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Negative to neutral December 22-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: In contrast to the Operational GFS, which has been down playing any pattern change... A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE in the overall Longwave weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will occur with or without it's support! With an upper-level ridge strengthening in the eastern Pacific as the EPO becomes increasingly Negative, one only needs to consider the physics of meteorology that teleconnects with a developing Negative AO. As the Polar Vortex shifts over north-central Canada as a result of a strengthening Negative AO. The newly evolving Winter pattern will complete it's dramatic change... with the third & final step-down taking place. As the Vortex intensifies associated with downward propagation of stratospheric poleward warming, a strong Arctic front will cross New England with the NAO falling Negative December 16-18. *However, there are many aspects to consider with this developing pattern... such as initial establishment of an East-based Negative NAO. With the heart of the Polar Vortex well north of the southern point of Hudson Bay over North-central Canada, the bonafide arctic air will remain to the north of New England. The building High to the east of Greenland will also limit any classic coastal development, allowing for a broad positively-tilted trough... in-contrast to my initial thinking! The third & final step-down will take place in modified form... which will still promote below normal temperatures over most of the eastern United States December 17-20. Monday's (12/12/11) NCEP - Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion (PREEPD) confirmed this: "THE INDICATION OF A SUPERSTORM OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND CHAIN DAY 3 WILL AFFORD SOME EXTRA PUMP TO THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY LARGER SLUG OF COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY MID PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL SQUASH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH THE POLAR FRONT SIFTING ALL THE WAY INTO FLORIDA BY DAY 7." CISCO

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: Since the beginning of November the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been active in Phases 2-5, which is associated with an intense area of convection in the west-central Pacific... allowing for a pronounced mid-latitude Pacific-jet stream. The overall state of the MJO influence has weakened since the beginning of December... in-return a strongly Positive EPO & WPO, flipped Negative! This change allowed for classic upper-level ridging over the eastern Pacific, that changed the orientation of the Polar Vortex... as it shifted over northeastern Alaska & Canadian Northwest Territories to the Nunavut. As these changes occured, the longwave weather pattern over the Northern Hemisphere in response to the shifting Vortex... allowed for eastern North America to experience it's first true step-down toward Winter! The MJO influence is still a factor however, preventing high pressure from dominating over the west-central Pacific... with the WPO index returning to a predominate Positive Phase. This in-return also encourages a stronger than normal sub-tropical jet-stream that under-cut's any existing ridge over the eastern Pacific. Although, there are many signals that do support High-Latitude Blocking events over eastern North America... such as a minimum or low level of sunspots on the solar discus, a continued East-based or Negative Phase of the (QBO) Quasi-biennial Oscillation, Positive Phase of the (AMO) Atlantic multi-decadal Oscillation, which promotes ridging in the west-central Atlantic, & a continued weak East-based La Nina (which is less of a factor than the 2010 / 11 Winter season!)
Now, after the third & final step-down around December 16... due to changes in the Pacific as a result of the continued MJO influence in association with the sub-tropical jet-stream, temperatures will moderate around December 21-23. A significant cold front will move through New England December 23-24 with the possibility of coastal development as the AO & NAO become weakly Negative. The last week of December will be moderately cold as weak blocking takes place, with gradual moderation toward the end of the period.
With all the above said factor's in-place, I am most interested in January & February 2012, concerning the progression of the MJO through Phases 6-8... which will promote a classic Negative WPO & EPO, as High pressure builds over the west-central Pacific. - Prepared by: Daniel Viens

DECEMBER 4, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-12-04T00:00:00.018-05:00

NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral December 6-9. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative December 10-12. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative to neutral December 13-18.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been SIGNIFICANTLY "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently moderately Positive.
The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral December 6-9. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative December 10-12. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative to neutral December 13-18.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been SIGNIFICANTLY "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly Positive to neutral December 6-9. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative December 10-12. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative to neutral December 13-18.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been SIGNIFICANTLY "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly Positive to neutral December 6-9. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative December 10-12. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative to neutral December 13-18.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been SIGNIFICANTLY "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral December 6-9. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral, then increasingly Positive December 10-12. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive to neutral December 13-18.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been SIGNIFICANTLY "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral December 6-9. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral, then increasingly Positive December 10-12. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive to neutral December 13-18.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been SIGNIFICANTLY "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently moderately Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be moderately to strongly Negative December 6-13. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will remain Negative with slight weakening December 14-17.
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly to moderately Negative December 6-13. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will become neutral December 14-17. NOTE: Indice Forecast's have been SIGNIFICANTLY "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly Positive to neutral December 6-9. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative December 10-12. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be weakly Negative to neutral December 13-18.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been SIGNIFICANTLY "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Welcome back! Since I started this site late last January, I NEVER have seen so much flip-flop with the Indice Forecasts! I was presenting my thoughts on the overall Longwave pattern since late October... Thursday afternoon's on WBRK 1340 A. M. Pittsfield, MA., where I have been working part-time. Now... I feel the need to return here, where I have the time to explain! On November 17... I mentioned on WBRK about a MAJOR Longwave pattern change that would take place late in the first week of December. During the month of November the overall Longwave weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere featured an intense Pacific jet-stream, with a highly active Intraseasonal oscillation (Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO) enhancing the Pacific jet... due to strong organized areas of convection in the west-central Pacific, as it matured through Phases 2-5. In reaction, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) became strongly Positive... a deep Polar Vortex became established over Alaska & northwestern Canada. Meanwhile, in New England this made way for a classic +AO & +NAO... allowing for November 2011 to close out well above normal! The MJO, which was a major influence on the Longwave pattern in contrast to the weak East-based La Nina... has significantly weakened. In response the WPO & EPO have flipped Negative... with rapidly rising heights over the eastern Pacific and Alaska. Due to an intense downstream to the east of this building upper-level ridge... a pronounced Santa Ana wind event is taking place over California & the Southwestern U.S., echoing to a MAJOR change that will take place in New England December 6-7, which will be the first true step-down as a pronounced cold front heads east... in the newly developing Winter pattern. As the 500-millibar Height Pattern continues to amplify over western North America with the EPO becoming increasingly Negative... to the east, the AO will respond and fall Negative as the jet-stream steers the Polar Vortex southeast, over north-central Canada to Hudson Bay December 8-12. This change will mark the true beginning of Winter 2011 - 12 New England!

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: In contrast to the Operational GFS, which has been down playing any pattern change... A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE in the overall Longwave weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will occur with or without it's support! With an upper-level ridge strengthening in the eastern Pacific as the EPO becomes increasingly Negative, one only needs to consider the physics of meteorology that teleconnects with a developing Negative AO. As the Polar Vortex shifts over north-central Canada as a result of a strengthening Negative AO... New England will experience it's second step-down with an Arctic frontal passage, leading to below normal temperatures December 10-12. The newly evolving Winter pattern will complete it's dramatic change... with the third & final step-down taking place. As the Vortex intensifies associated with downward propagation of stratospheric poleward warming, an intense Arctic front will cross New England with the NAO falling Negative increasing the possibility of coastal development around mid December. - Prepared by: Daniel Viens

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-05-02T17:26:00.003-04:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice at a present strength of +0.5 Standard Deviation (SD), will become increasingly Negative through Wednesday. Due to unseasonable amplification of the 500-millibar Height Pattern across North America, East coast development is likely. Chilly unsettled conditions will prevail throughout New England, with high elevation snow possible in western & northern New England in association with below to much Below normal temperatures. The pattern will peak & then weaken in amplification May 6-10, as temperatures moderate to seasonal to slightly above normal levels. During May 11-12, the 500-millibar Height Pattern will re-amplify as the WPO & EPO trend increasingly Negative in reaction to an intense active progression of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Note the increasing Positive PNA May 12-15, as shown above on the GEFS Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) & NCEP. Below is a link to the Current MJO Forecast, note the expansive area of above normal sea surface temperatures within the last two"forecast" frames. This in-part will be responsible for the flip to an intensifying Negative WPO & EPO May 10-12, which will steer the AO & NAO into a pronounced Negative Phase around mid-May.
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

APRIL 24-25, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-04-30T23:37:00.005-04:00

NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will continue to be very weakly Positive April 25-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative April 30 to May 5. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative to neutral May 6-10, then increasingly Negative May 11-14.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will continue to be very weakly Positive April 25-29. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative April 30 to May 5. The Operational GFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative to neutral May 6-10, then increasingly Negative May 11-14.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will continue to be very weakly Positive to neutral April 25-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative April 30 to May 5. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative to neutral May 6-10, then increasingly Negative May 11-14.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS indicates that the AO will continue to be very weakly Positive to neutral April 25-29. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral, then weakly Negative April 30 to May 5. The Operational GFS later indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative to neutral May 6-10, then increasingly Negative May 11-14.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral April 25-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast trends the PNA neutral, to very weakly Positive April 30 to May 5. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Negative May 6-10, then increasingly Positive May 11-14.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral April 25-29. The Operational Indice Forecast trends the PNA neutral, to very weakly Positive April 30 to May 5. The Operational GFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Negative May 6-10, then trends neutral May 11-14.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be very weakly Positive to neutral April 25-28. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be neutral to weakly Negative April 29 to May 4. Later trending increasingly Positive May 5-9, with pronounced weakening toward Negative May 10-14.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be very weakly Positive to neutral April 25-28. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative April 29 to May 4. Later trending increasingly Positive May 5-9, with pronounced weakening toward Negative May 10-14.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will continue to be very weakly Negative to neutral April 25-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be neutral to weakly Negative April 30 to May 5. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be increasingly Positive May 6-14.

NOTE: Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I will continue to focus on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to these indices entering a pronounced Negative Deviation. The intraseasonal-oscillation or MJO is active in Phases 6-8, which will influence unseasonable amplification of the 500-millibar Height Pattern over the east-central Pacific. In-reaction, downward propagation of poleward stratospheric warming has occured as the Polar Vortex shifts southeast over east-central Canada. In association with an increasing Negative AO & NAO, temperatures will be below to briefly much below normal, with overall chilly unsettled conditions April 30 to May 5. The 500-millibar Height Pattern will gradually de-amplify, but with establishment of a Greenland Block, temperatures will be much Below normal in New England May 3-5. The threat of East coast development is highly possible, as Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections peak in amplification in association with a brief strengthening PNA ridge. As pronounced changes take place with the MJO, the westerlies will strengthen as the WPO & EPO trend increasingly Positive. This change will allow for seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures in New England May 6-10, but weak blocking will still prevail.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is active presently, and will be a player concerning future changes. I will focus on the WPO & EPO for the Long-Range, due to continued progressive changes that will take place over the west-central Pacific. As a result, the WPO & EPO will again flip & become Negative May 10-12. With a re-strengthening Negative AO & NAO, below to possibly well below normal temperatures & unsettled conditions, is likely in New England May 11-15.

Home Weather Stations: Solution to Sudden Weather Changes

2011-04-30T15:09:00.000-04:00

By Mildred R. Gatewood

At some point in our lives we probably have experienced our plan getting ruined by sudden change of the weather, like, going out for a date at the beach. You have carefully planned the things to bring and wear for that date the night before. The next day, the sky's clear and the sun shines brightly in the horizon. You even checked weather updates on the internet to make sure your day will be perfect. You arrived at the beach and you haven't spent five minutes basking in the sand and enjoying the sun, the sky started to get dark and it began to drizzle. Soon, the heavy rain poured. So much for your perfect day, isn't it?

This kind of situation is common. People believe the weather reports and predictions of the day and end up getting unpleasant surprises that destroy their plans. So, what can be the done to avoid such situations? How will you get ahead of the weather and make alternative plans? What you will need is a weather station at home.

Weather is somehow localized. This means that changes in weather sometimes occur in short distances. Like when travelling to another city, it is somehow normal to experience rain in one area and then just few miles ahead, the sky is clear. This is the reason why plans of most people are ruined by the weather because it changes unpredictably.

Improbability of the weather can be decreased once you have your own weather station. You can now plan your daily activities without worrying about the weather. Such equipment can be installed in the house and still give you correct weather details outside.

It will be such a great help if you get to know the condition of the weather for the day. Through this you will be aware if your plan to have a picnic at the park few blocks away from your house will be a great idea for the day.

Nowadays, there are a lot of home weather stations that you can find in the market. All you need to do is choose the kind of station that suits your weather update needs and your budget. For beginners, wireless weather station is good for you do not have to worry about the cables and tripping accidents.

These weather devices are meant to record the wind's direction and strength, rainfall, temperature and humidity. Back in the old times, people make use of analog thermometer and rain gauge to predict the weather. They are somehow inaccurate because telling the weather relies on the person reading the instruments' eyesight and his capacity to read and interpret the details from them. Today, weather stations are digitalized which lessen the human error and effort.

Wireless weather stations come with sensors that help the gadget give the reading. To make it work, the range of the sensors should be enough. Moreover, these sensors must not also be blocked or obstructed by houses, trees or buildings.

If you are sick and tired of making guesses and predictions of the weather, then buy your very own weather station today. With that little equipment, it will be unnecessary to open your computer to check the weather news or turn on the TV for weather updates because you can instantly determine the weather condition for the day since you already have a weather station inside the house with sensors just right at your backyard.

About the Author:

Try to get ahead of the weather by having your own weather station at home that in other language like German is called Funkwetterstation which is the same as Funkwetterstation Nexus.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-04-23T22:07:00.005-04:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice at a present strength of +0.5 Standard Deviation (SD), will briefly intensify in a Positive Deviation in-advance of significant amplification of the 500-millibar Height Pattern April 26-28. Temperatures will be seasonal to slightly above normal Tuesday through Thursday, however (as shown on the NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from CPC) the NAO will fall into a pronounced Negative Phase April 29 to May1. As unseasonable amplification takes place with the 500-millibar Height Pattern, temperatures will be below to much Below normal in New England with a high possibility of East coast development. I would like to clearify past trends with the NAO, that I had stated. On the April 10 - Weekly Indice Review I mentioned that a strengthening Greenland Block would be in association of an increasing Negative NAO. Even though the indice did weaken toward neutral to very weakly Negative at times, there was NO classic Greenland Block. The Pacific indices, specifically an intense Negative WPO allowed for unseasonable amplification of the 500-millibar Height Pattern across North America April 15-23. If the AO & NAO Teleconnected at the time, Lows would have been closer to the East coast as opposed to the Great Lakes Region. This would have promoted an even colder scenario for New England than that which was experienced, but by April 29-30 the AO & NAO will soon Teleconnect as the indices fall toward Negative. Have a "HAPPY EASTER!"

NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW - WILL CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE

2011-04-21T15:59:00.002-04:00

For viewers that are interested in the NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW, I apologize for the later posts these past two weeks. I was visiting family in Detroit, Michigan & since my return to North Adams last week, I have yet to get back on schedule. I do plan on returning this post to weekly Sunday/Monday updates. I would also like to personally say "Thank you" to the viewers who have continued interest. Have a "Happy Easter!" Daniel Viens

APRIL 17, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-04-21T15:44:00.005-04:00

NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive April 19-22. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later indicates the NAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative April 23 to May 5.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive April 19-22. This indice forecast later indicates that the NAO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative April 23 to May 5.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Positive April 19-22.  This indice forecast later indicates that the AO will be neutral, then increasingly Negative April 23 to May 5.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS indicates that the AO will be very weakly Positive April 19-22. This indice forecast also indicates that the AO will be neutral, then very weakly to weakly Negative April 23 to May 5.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative April 19-22. This indice forecast trends the PNA neutral, then very weakly Positive April 23 to May 5.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative April 19-22. This indice forecast also trends the PNA neutral, then very weakly Positive April 23 to May 5.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive April 19-22. This indice forecast later indicates that the EPO will be very weakly Positive, trending neutral to very weakly Negative April 23 to May 5.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently moderately Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly to moderately Negative April 19-22. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will be very weakly Negative, trending neutral to very weakly Positive April 23 to May 5.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be neutral April 19-22.
This indice forecast later indicates that the AAO will be increasingly Negative, then weaken April 23 to May 5.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

NOTE: Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to these indices entering a pronounced Negative Deviation. The intraseasonal-oscillation or MJO is active in Phases 6-8, which will influence unseasonable amplification of the 500-millibar Height Pattern over the east-central Pacific. In-reaction, downward propagation of poleward stratospheric warming will occur as the Polar Vortex shifts southeast over east-central Canada. Temperatures will be below to much below normal in New England April 22-25, then briefly seasonal April 26-28, in-advance of significant amplification of the 500-millibar Height Pattern in association with an increasing Negative AO & NAO. As the trough deepens over the Eastern U. S., temperatures will be much Below normal in New England April 29-30. The Southeast ridge will disappear in-response to rapidly falling heights, with modified arctic-air intrusion that will encourage possible East coast development. During April 29 to May 1, unseasonably cold unsettled conditions will prevail with high & possible low elevation flurries/snow showers over western & northern New England, in-response to strong late-season cold frontal passages as the 500-millibar Height Pattern intensifies in overall amplification. Precipitation during this period could average much above normal for New England, dependent on timing & interaction of elements that could foster possible coastal storm development.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is active presently, and will be a player concerning future changes. I will focus on the WPO & EPO for the Long-Range, due to progressive changes that will take place over the west-central Pacific. The 500-millibar Height Pattern will gradually de-amplify, but with establishment of a Greenland Block, temperatures will continue to be much Below normal in New England May 2-5. The continued threat of East coast development is highly possible during this time-frame, as Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections peak in amplification in association with a strengthening PNA ridge. As pronounced changes take place with the MJO, the westerlies will strengthen as the WPO & EPO trend increasingly Positive May 5-10.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-04-16T20:34:00.001-04:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice at a present strength of +1.5 Standard Deviation (SD), will weaken through early next week as High-Latitude Blocking becomes established in association with an increasing Negative NAO. NOAA's Northeast Sector Radar Mosaic shows a large area of precipitation in-response to a developing Low over east-central Pennsylvania & New York, which will move northeast & converge with intense Low-pressure over the Great Lakes Region. In-reaction, Heavy windswept Rain will occur (mixed with high elevation snow/sleet over western & northern New England) as temperatures briefly remain much Below normal. Even though the AO & NAO are currently weakly Positive, the WPO & EPO are weakly to moderately Negative, allowing for a pronounced trough to become established as heights fall over east-central Canada. This amplification will encourage the AO & NAO to fall toward Negative, after a temporary moderation next week.

APRIL 10, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-04-13T20:12:00.008-04:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be moderately Positive April 11-14. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later indicates the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral April 15-18, then very weakly Negative April 19-24.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently moderately Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will be moderately Positive April 11-14. This indice forecast later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral April 15-18, then increasingly Positive April 19-24.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently strongly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be strongly Positive April 11-14.  This indice forecast later indicates that the AO will significantly weaken, & become weakly Positive to neutral April 15-18. Then trends increasingly Positive April 19-24.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently strongly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the AO will be moderately Positive April 11-14. This indice forecast later indicates that the AO will significantly weaken, & become weakly Positive to neutral April 15-18. Then trends increasingly Positive April 19-24.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative April 11-14. This indice forecast weakens the PNA & trends neutral April 15-18, then becomes weakly Negative April 19-24.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative April 11-14. This indice forecast trends the PNA from weakly to moderately Negative April 15-18, then weakens and becomes neutral April 19-24.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive, then neutral to very weakly Negative April 15-17. This indice forecast later indicates that the EPO will be neutral, trending increasingly Positive April 18-22.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly to moderately Negative April 15-17. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will be weakly Negative, trending neutral April 18-22.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly Negative April 11-14. This indice forecast later indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Negative to neutral April 15-19, then increasingly Negative April 20-24.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

NOTE: Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to pronounced changes that will take place with these indices. The intraseasonal-oscillation or MJO will become weakly active in Phases 6-8, which will influence amplification of the 500-millibar Height Pattern over the east-central Pacific. In-return, the Polar Vortex will shift back over east-central Canada as the Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Pattern re-amplifies April 15-18. This change will initially allow for seasonal to below normal temperatures in New England, but downward propagation of poleward warming is likely to occur which will flip the AO & NAO toward Negative April 17-19. In-reaction, the Vortex will expand southeast... deepening the trough to the South & East. As heights fall over New England with a push of modified arctic-air, temperatures will be briefly much below normal. With rising heights over western North America in association with an increasing Positive PNA, East coast cyclogenesis is possible (with higher elevation snow over western & northern New England) as the Eastern U. S. trough deepens in reaction to a strengthening Greenland Block.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: CORRECTION - The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is weakly active presently, and will be a player concerning future changes. I will focus on the NAO for the Long-Range, due to re-amplification that will also have an impact during this time-frame. As High-Latitude blocking once again becomes established, temperatures will be seasonal in-advance of falling heights over New England April 20-21. During April 22-25, Temperatures will be below to much Below normal in New England. I feel the Operational GFS is too aggressive with taking the AO & NAO into a pronounced Positive deviation, as this pattern once established... will not brake-down easily even though it is April. The pattern will gradually de-amplify as the WPO & EPO trend Positive April 23-25, but chilly unsettled conditions, in reaction to a weakening Negative NAO Block will still have an influence over New England .

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-04-06T23:18:00.006-04:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice at a present strength of +0.5 Standard Deviation (SD), will become increasingly Positive through early next week. In-reaction, during April 10-14 is when the highest probability of above normal temperatures will occur. As the 500-millibar Height Pattern deamplifies and southeast U. S. ridge strengthens, there will be a brief period of much Above normal temperatures in New England April 11-12. Beyond this time-frame, significant changes will take place as the WPO & EPO trend Negative in response to MJO activity. As a result, the AO - GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast from CPC falls from a strong Positive deviation April 14-16.

APRIL 3, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-04-04T16:15:00.005-04:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive April 4-8. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later indicates the NAO will be increasingly Positive April 9-14.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive April 4-8. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will be increasingly Positive April 9-14.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly Positive April 4-8. This indice forecast then trends the AO increasingly Positive April 9-14.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly Positive April 4-8. This indice forecast then trends the AO increasingly Positive April 9-14.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Positive April 4-7. This indice forecast then trends the PNA from very weakly Positive to neutral, then weakly Negative April 8-14.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive April 4-7. This indice forecast then trends the PNA from weakly Positive to neutral, then increasingly Negative April 8-14.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will become neutral to very weakly Negative April 4-7. This indice forecast indicates that the EPO will be neutral, trending increasingly Positive April 8-12. Then later indicates the EPO to neutralize and trend very weakly Negative April 13-18.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will become neutral to weakly Negative April 4-7. This indice forecast indicates that the WPO will be neutral, trending weakly Positive April 8-12. Then later indicates the WPO to neutralize and trend increasingly Negative April 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will become neutral, then increasingly Negative April 4-8. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later indicates the AAO will be neutral, then trends very weakly Positive April 9-14.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

NOTE: Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to overall good continuity with these indices. This period will feature temperature swings in New England - as the High-Latitude Block over East-central Canada collapses, and the 500-Millibar Height Pattern briefly becomes Zonal. As a result, temperatures will moderate to above normal levels April 4-5 in association with a weakly Positive NAO. Heights will build over the eastern Pacific, which will allow the 500-millibar Height Pattern to become weakly amplified as the Polar jet-stream buckles over New England April 6-9. This change will be associated with unsettled conditions & slightly below normal temperatures April 6-9, but lack of Teleconnection support will cause radical-changes with the Longwave pattern across North America. As a result, deamplification of the pattern will occur as the ridge over the Southeastern U. S. strengthens in reaction to falling heights over the east-central Pacific April 10-14. In-response to this change will be seasonal to above normal temperatures, briefly much Above normal in New England as the AO & NAO become increasingly Positive.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is weakly active presently, and will be a player concerning future changes. The intraseasonal-oscillation or MJO will become weakly active in Phases 6-8. This strongly encourages ridging over the east-central Pacific, due to this I will focus on the WPO & EPO for the Long-range. With re-amplification of the WPO & EPO, the 500-millibar Height Pattern will shift the Polar Vortex back to East-central Canada. The overall strength of the building ridge over the east-central Pacific and shifting Polar Vortex, will allow for seasonal to below normal temperatures in New England April 15-18. In-relation to Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW), downward propagation of poleward warming may also occur which would flip the AO & NAO toward Negative April 17-19.

NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW - LEGEND

2011-04-02T17:17:00.043-04:00

official product of...

consists of two-parts:

          1. Analysis - an analyzation of the NAO, AO, & PNA GEFS & Operational GFS Teleconnection Indice Forecasts from NOAA's CPC. The EPO & WPO GEFS Teleconnection Indice Forecasts from NOAA's ESRL/PSD & NCEP... are also included, as well as the AAO GEFS Indice Forecast from CPC. Each Indice Forecast includes an analyzation of current deviation from normal-mean through use of a color-scale, which is meant to provide a better understanding of "current" trends with each indice.

          2. Interpretation - an interpretive overview from the author's understanding of the "Analysis," which is made-up of two-subparts:
A. EXTENDED OUTLOOK B. LONG RANGE THOUGHTS.

          3. This legend is to provide the viewer with a better understanding of color-scale used during updates of the NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW:

neutral - demonstrates a zonal
or de-amplified pattern.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - This light blue (aqua) shade demonstrates a very weakly or weakly Negative NAO,
-0.1 Standard Deviation (SD) to -1.5. This same color-scale would also apply to other Teleconnection indices of this deviation.

Arctic Oscillation (AO) - This true standard blue shade demonstrates a moderately, strongly, or extremely Negative AO, -2.0 Standard Deviation (SD) and greater. This same color-scale would also apply to other Teleconnection indices of this deviation.

Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) - This orange shade demonstrates a very weakly or weakly Positive PNA, +0.1 Standard Deviation (SD) to +1.5. This same color-scale would also apply to other Teleconnection indices of this deviation.

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) - This true standard red shade demonstrates a moderately, strongly, or extremely Positive EPO, +2.0 Standard Deviation (SD) and greater. This same color-scale would also apply to other Teleconnection indices of this deviation.

NOTE: All other posts including CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS, will not apply to this legend. Standard color-scale will be used only, due to forecast trends not including deviation.

4. New England NAO (NE-NAO) common abbreviations & contractions used:
A. -NAO - demonstrates a general Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern... this contraction would also apply to other teleconnection indices when applicable, such as:
-AO, -PNA, -EPO, -WPO, & -AAO.

B. +NAO - demonstrates a general Positive Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern... this contraction would also apply to other teleconnection indices when applicable, such as:
+AO, +PNA, +EPO, +WPO, & +AAO.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS UPDATED (CLASSIC NOR' EASTER!)

2011-03-30T20:59:00.003-04:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice at a present strength of -1.0 Standard Deviation (SD) will weaken through Friday, but not before a major Nor' Easter hits New England. This system initially developing over the Gulf of Mexico, as shown on the current NCEP - Surface Map - is intensifying off the South Carolina coast. As key elements come into place over the Southeastern U. S., rapid-deepening will occur off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday Night. Dynamical-interaction will allow this cyclone to explode, as the intense Low-pressure system tracks over Cape Cod during Friday. Significant snow accumulation is likely in western & northern New England. As the low pulls away, cold-air will be drawn-in behind it - changing Rain to Snow over eastern New England. The 500-millibar Height Pattern will then gradually de-amplify, as High-pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico in reaction to an increasingly Positive NAO April 2-5.

MARCH 27, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-03-27T20:36:00.011-04:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently moderately Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative to neutral March 28 to April 1. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later indicates the NAO will be neutral, then trends weakly Positive April 2-7.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently moderately Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative to neutral March 28 to April 1. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will be neutral, then trends weakly to moderately Positive April 2-7.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative to neutral March 28 to April 1. This indice forecast then trends the AO from neutral, to increasingly Positive April 2-7.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral March 28 to April 1. This indice forecast then trends the AO from neutral, to increasingly Positive April 2-7.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive March 28 to April 1. This indice forecast then trends the PNA from very weakly Positive to neutral, then increasingly Negative April 2-7.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will be weakly Positive March 28 to April 1. This indice forecast then trends the PNA increasingly Positive April 2-5, with pronounced weakening April 6-7.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly to moderately Positive March 28-31. This indice forecast indicates that the EPO will weaken and become neutral, then very weakly Negative April 1-5.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive March 28-31.  This indice forecast indicates that the WPO will weaken and become neutral, then increasingly Negative April 1-5.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly Negative to neutral March 28 to April 1. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later indicates the AAO will be neutral, then trends very weakly Positive April 2-7.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

NOTE: Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the AAO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to overall strong continuity with these indices. Due to weak blocking remaining over the North Atlantic temperatures will average seasonal, as the 500-millibar Height Pattern in association with Teleconnections de-amplifies March 28-31. As the Polar Vortex weakens & lifts Northeast, the potential will once again increase for East coast cyclogenesis due to the weakening of the pronounced Negative AO & NAO High-Latitude Block over east-central Canada. Dynamics for such a system to develop will come from two main-sources: 1. Modified southward push of polar-air intrusion, from the weakening but still existing High-Latitude Block.
2. Tropical-feed from a weakened, but still active Southeast U. S. Ridge.
This intense Low-pressure system will be a signal of significant change, as the Vortex & Gyre lift northeast in response to the strengthening Southeast ridge March 31 to April 1. The potential is moderate for accumulating snow, especially over western & northern New England. The 500-millibar Height Pattern will then de-amplify and briefly become zonal, with seasonal to above normal temperatures in New England April 2-5 as the AO & NAO become Positive.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: La Nina from this point-on - is of little influence & the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is weakly active presently, but will be a player concerning future changes. I will focus on the WPO & EPO for the Long-range, due to reamplification that will strongly influence the 500-millibar Height Pattern over North America. This change will briefly re-energize the polar jet-stream as the WPO & EPO become increasingly Negative, however due to the strengthening April sun and lack of Teleconnection support - temperatures will be seasonal to slightly below normal in New England April 6-10. During April 10-12 changes will take place over the west-central Pacific, associated with an increasingly active Intraseasonal-oscillation or MJO. During this time-frame is when New England's Spring may become established meteorologically, as the westerlies drive the Pacific jet-stream across the Northern United States in association with an intensifying Southeastern U. S. Ridge as the AO & NAO trend Positive.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-03-23T16:13:00.005-04:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice presently at neutral, to become increasingly Negative through Friday. Based on current trends & GFS Operational/Ensemble Indice Forecasts from CPC, I feel the NAO will fall at least to -1 Standard Deviation (SD) by Friday/Saturday. The AO will average very weakly Negative combined with a weakly Negative NAO, which significantly increases the potential of East coast cyclogenesis along with below normal temperatures in New England March 23-27. The image above from NCEP demonstrates a classic Negative NAO Pattern, which will attempt to strengthen as we head through the rest of this week. The ridge over the Southeastern U. S. will fight back, but weaken late this week as the pattern across North America peaks in amplification.

MARCH 20, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-03-21T17:17:00.010-04:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will become weakly to moderately Negative March 23-27. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later weakens the NAO toward neutral then trends weakly Positive March 28 to April 1.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will become weakly to moderately Negative March 23-27. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will weaken and become neutral, March 28 to April 1.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative March 23-27. This indice forecast then trends the AO from neutral, to weakly Positive March 28 to April 1.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will become weakly Negative March 23-27. This indice forecast then trends the AO from neutral, to increasingly Positive March 28 to April 1.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will become weakly Positive March 23-27. This indice forecast then appears to bring the PNA from very weakly Positive to neutral March 28 to April 1.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will be neutral to weakly Positive March 23-27. This indice forecast then trends the PNA increasingly Positive March 28 to April 1.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be very weakly Negative March 22-24. This indice forecast indicates that the EPO will weaken, and become neutral to weakly Positive March 26-31.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will remain weakly Positive March 22-24. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will be very weakly Positive to neutral March 26-31.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will become weakly to moderately Negative March 23-27. This indice forecast then trends the AAO from neutral, to very weakly Positive March 28 to April 1.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

NOTE: Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to pronounced changes that are taking place. The true-punch of the "Winter Season 2010/11" unofficially came to an end with a strong warm-frontal passage March 4-5, however as I mentioned previously - we will still experience wintery-elements as we head through March. The overall Longwave pattern across the Northern Hemisphere has undergone a major change. This change associated with an increasing Negative AO & NAO will peak March 23-27, which is when the greatest threat for East coast cyclogenesis will be as the 500-millibar Height Pattern amplifies. Temperatures will be below normal in New England, briefly much Below normal associated with an increasing west-based Negative NAO pattern. Even though the amplification of the longwave pattern across North America is not supported by Stratospheric Sudden Warming - SSW, due to ongoing cooling over the Pole - it is directly-related to Teleconnections. In reaction, beyond this time-frame Teleconnections will de-amplify "as temperatures trend seasonal to above normal March 28-31," however I will emphasize "seasonal" due to weak blocking remaining over the North Atlantic.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: La Nina from this point-on - is of little influence & the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is weakly active presently, but may be a player concerning future changes. I will not put much focus on the MJO due to weak activity, however I will continue to focus on Teleconnections. As the trough over northeastern Canada gradually lifts northeast, temperatures will rebound back to seasonal levels in New England. The AO & NAO will become Positive around March 31 to April 1, temperatures will moderate from seasonal levels to above normal. However, the unofficial beginning of New England's Spring may have a set back as the WPO & EPO weaken in association with an increasing Positive PNA April 3-5.

LAST CLASSIC INCREASING NEGATIVE NAO & NEW ENGLAND SNOW THREAT!

2011-03-19T16:55:00.002-04:00

The potential of East coast cyclogenesis that I had made reference to on the March 13 - Weekly Indice Review, is clearly shown on NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (HPC) Surface Map above for Thursday - March 24. A sharp cold front associated with an increasing Negative AO & NAO, will move through the eastern United States Wednesday - with a Low forming along it off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This area of Low-pressure has strong potential depending on timing & interaction, for accumulating snow (on Wednesday Night/Thursday) over western & northern New England. There is a low risk for accumulating snow over southern New England, which is highly dependent on timing & interaction in relation to the Frontal passage & deepening East coast Trough. Temperatures will be below normal in New England March 23-26 as the 500-millibar Height Pattern amplifies over eastern North America, and weak ridging occurs over the Western U. S. in association with a weakly Positive PNA.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-03-16T21:13:00.002-04:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice at a current strength of +1.0 Standard Deviation (SD), will remain weakly Positive through Friday. After this pronounced weakening will take place March 19-20, as the 500-millibar Height Pattern changes significantly - in response to re-amplification of Teleconnections. Even though this change will not have long-term support, due to cooling over the Pole in relation to (Stratospheric Sudden Warming - SSW) & active changes with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the west-central Pacific. Teleconnections, will allow for a brief return of the Negative AO & NAO. Closer inspection of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast - from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) does not support this... However, the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast from CPC clearly shows a significant change. Major Longwave pattern changes that happen in the Northern Hemisphere also occur in the Southern Hemisphere, as the AO & AAO have directly related effects within each hemisphere. It is of little doubt that the AO & NAO will become increasingly Negative March 21-23, with potential for East coast cyclogenesis March 22-25 - due to significant building Heights over Greenland in association with a neutral to very weakly Positive PNA.

MARCH 13, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-03-14T15:59:00.005-04:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will remain weakly Positive March 15-18. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later weakens the NAO toward neutral then trends increasingly Negative March 20-27.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will remain weakly Positive March 15-18. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will become neutral, then increasingly Negative March 20-27.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) like the NAO, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be weakly to moderately Positive March 15-18. This indice forecast significantly weakens the AO to neutral, then trends very weakly Negative March 20-27.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will also be weakly to Moderately Positive March 15-18. This indice forecast weakens the AO from weakly Positive to neutral, then trends weakly Negative March 20-27.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will become neutral March 15-18. This indice forecast then appears to bring the PNA neutral to weakly Positive March 20-27.
   The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will become neutral to very weakly Negative March 15-18. This indice forecast then trends the PNA from neutrality, to increasingly Positive around March 20-24.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently moderately Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be moderately to strongly Positive March 15-17. This indice forecast indicates that the EPO will significantly weaken toward neutral, then trend very weakly Negative March 20-24.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly to Moderately Positive March 15-17. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will remain weakly Positive, but with pronounced weakening March 20-24.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly Positive March 15-18. This indice forecast weakens the AAO to neutral, then trends very weakly Negative March 20-27.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to noteworthy changes. The true-punch of the "Winter Season 2010/11" unofficially came to an end with a strong warm-frontal passage March 4-5, however as I mentioned previously - we will still experience wintery-elements as we head through March. The overall Longwave pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will completely de-amplify and become Zonal March 15-18. Due to the increasing Positive AO & NAO,  a strong push of very mild air of Pacific-origin in concert with intense westerlies - will be in association with above to much above normal temperatures in New England. As we approach March 19-20 the pattern will begin to reamplify as the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) trends neutral, & Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) briefly becomes increasingly Negative. Temperatures will be seasonal, then below normal in New England as the AO & NAO trend increasingly Negative March 21-23. There is a potential for East coast cyclogenesis March 22-25, as the trough in response to the 500-millibar Height Pattern amplifies over eastern North America in reaction to rising heights over Greenland.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: La Nina from this point-on - is of little influence & the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is weakly active presently, but will be a player concerning future changes. The WPO & EPO will trend increasingly Positive March 24-25, due to active changes with the Intraseasonal-oscillation or (MJO) over the west-central Pacific. With the Polar Vortex lifting North, and pronounced cooling over the Pole in relation to Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) - the AO & NAO will become Positive. This change may be the unofficial beginning of New England's Spring as temperatures trend seasonal to above normal March 28-31.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS UPDATED

2011-03-09T21:11:00.136-05:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice at a current strength of +0.5, to become increasingly Positive through Mid-March. Due to the increasing Positive nature of the AO & NAO, systems affecting New England will be milder (especially in western & northern New England) in contrast to the recent past. I do feel that New England will have a short mild-spell as we approach the middle to end of next week. This temporary moderation with Above normal temperatures will be the result of Southeastern U. S. Ridging, associated with an increasing Positive NAO. However, significant changes will be looming for New England beyond March 18. Now, there are many things to consider before truly emphasizing the return of a Negative NAO Pattern around March 19-20. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) - Operational GFS Indice Forecast above from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), looks quite impressive by March 18. However, the GFS Ensembles are not as aggressive with the AO's fall. Due to these uncertainties it's also important to look at the Polar region, for signs of Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) which has determination on the overall state of the AO. Although not scientifically proven, research shows a weak connection between stratosphere-troposphere dynamical interaction & the AO signal. The connection is observed through warming of the troposphere & poleward downward propagation to the stratosphere. This warm poleward shift of stratospheric sudden warming would push the Arctic/Polar Vortex south, as significant blocking/ warming occurs at the North Pole. At this point I do not have data for the stratosphere, but further investigation concerning Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections points briefly to a cold pattern. The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) & Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) fall little, but enough to have a short-lived increasing Negative AO & NAO during the last half of March. I may be stretching my time-frame due to the Pacific Indices trending Positive soon after, however I am going to highlight the period between March 20-27 as the strongest potential. This change would bring below normal temperatures to much of the eastern United States & western Europe, with most pronounced affects over New England & western Europe/ United Kingdom.

The Advantages Of An Electronic Rain Gauge

2011-03-08T16:52:00.000-05:00

By Ned Dagostino

It's not just for measuring rainfall, an electronic rain gauge is much more. We all, both adults and children, tend to be fascinated by weather. This gauge will fuel that fascination. Your portable weather station will not be complete without it, and when it comes to learning, it is a great tool.

Ok, you built a new rain gauge for your kid or, even saw your kid make it, but how accurate is that? It certainly can't beat the electronic rain gauge in accuracy as well as professionalism! These are ideal instruments for a school and seats of learning and education. Therefore, the wise thing is to go for an electronic rain gauge. Hands on experience of these weather analysis instruments helps build up a better understanding of how weather works and various weather patterns.

And advances features are also available. For instance you can not only measure the precipitation, but also spillage on some models. It is, without a doubt, a must have tool for everyone from the weather fanatic to those with just a casual interest in the weather who like to keep an eye on what's happening. And if you've got a portable weather station, simply measuring wind speed and the heat index is not enough. Rainfall measurement is an important parameter as well.

Here is another interesting and yet common use. Some people like to use weather gadgets as part of their home decor. Yes it's also about making your home look nice as well as for educational and hobby purposes.

Home gardeners also can make good use of an electronic rain gauge. For starters, armed with this information you'll know more about your soil patterns. Plus knowing how much it rained is important to determine how much water you need to add, if any. This is true for a master gardener or someone with a small vegetable garden in their back yard.

When picking your gauge, try to choose one with a wireless data transmission base. After all, you don't want to have to go outside on a stormy night to get and record your data. Not only will you stay dry, but a wireless base will stream real time live data right into your home. You'll get precipitation totals and current temperatures if you have the unit set up within a few hundred feet of your home.

A newer version electronic rain gauge has other functions such as temperature and humidity measurement sensors. Buy these only if you don't have other instruments already taking these measurements.

Sure you can set up a standard rain measurement gauge in your yard, but it won't be nearly as accurate as an electronic rain gauge. It also won't record and track the data for you. If you are a serious weather fanatic, or just need the information to make sure your yard or garden are getting the proper amount of water, an electronic gauge is by far your best option.

About the Author:

To find out additional information about how an electronic rain gauge is a vital component of your wireless weather stations, be certain to visit our website at ElectronicRainGauge.net.

MARCH 6, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-03-07T16:27:00.003-05:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will become neutral to weakly Positive March 8-13. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later weakens the NAO to very weakly Positive then neutral around March 13-18.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will become very weakly Positive around March 8-13. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive, then weaken to neutral around March 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) like the NAO, is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will become weakly to moderately Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast significantly weakens the AO to neutral, then trends increasingly Negative around March 13-18.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will also become weakly to Moderately Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast weakens the AO from weakly Positive to neutral, then trends increasingly Negative around March 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will become weakly Positive March 8-13. This indice forecast then appears to bring the PNA increasingly Positive around March 13-18.
   The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will become neutral to very weakly Negative during March 8-13. This indice forecast then weakens the PNA in a Negative state, trending neutral to increasingly Positive around March 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will become weakly Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast indicates that the EPO will be increasingly Positive, then weaken toward neutral around March 13-18.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will become neutral to weakly Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will be increasingly Positive, then weaken toward neutral and become very weakly Negative around March 13-18.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast then appears to bring the AAO weakly to moderately Positive around March 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to noteworthy changes with these indices. We did experience sharp amplification with Coastal redevelopment on Sunday, which in-return allowed for rising heights to the West. I did state on last week's Weekly Indice Review that we would have "temperatures seasonal then above normal during March 8-13." Even though I am still trending this way, emphasis should be put on "seasonal" due to weak Blocking remaining over northeastern Canada. However, it' still clear that an intense Pacific jet-stream associated with strong Westerlies will drive across the northern United States, as the pattern de-amplifies and becomes zonal around March 13-18. As a result temperatures will be seasonal to above normal, with a brief period of much Above normal temperatures in New England March 15-18 associated with an increasingly Positive AO & NAO.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: Even though La Nina continues to weaken and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is not a present influence, the overall Longwave pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will de-amplify and become Zonal. Now, I strongly feel that with the passing Cold Blast last week... Winter's true punch is over. However, Wintery elements will still be a threat as we head further into March. A strong push of very mild air of Pacific-origin March 15-18, will be in-advance of a Major Longwave pattern-change across the Northern Hemisphere. This change may bring New England back to a Classic Negative AO & NAO pattern beyond March 18...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE NAO

2011-03-05T22:27:00.000-05:00

The Current Surface Map & Satellite from NCEP depicts a very active weather pattern. Currently in New England we have a strong Southwesterly flow, in advance of a sharp cold front over the Ohio River Valley. The cold front will be the mark of pronounced changes associated with an increasing Negative AO & NAO, as cold-air advection occurs in New England late Sunday night with significant cooling aloft. Moderate to heavy Rain changing to wet Snow over western & northern New England will also occur as a secondary low pressure system develops off the Mid-Atlantic coast, in response to the amplifying Eastern trough. Currently off the coast of California is a 1024-Millibar High along with a Southerly flow over much of the U. S. West coast , this eastward expanding High will be the trigger to allow for a brief weakly Positive PNA. Well to the northwest of this High (southeast of the Gulf of Alaska) is an intense area of spinning Low pressure, which will later allow for falling heights over the eastern Pacific and West coast as the PNA returns Negative.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-03-02T21:32:00.001-05:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the Indice at a present strength of -0.5, to become increasingly Negative through Thursday. I would also like to point-out that even though the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) does not appear to become Negative, the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) neutralizes and trends very weakly Negative. Significant pattern changes that happen in the Northern Hemisphere, also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. Acting in the same manner as the AO, the AAO is directly-related with similar influences within the Southern Hemisphere. With that said, I strongly believe the AO & NAO will become neutral to weakly Negative during March 4-5. This will strongly encourage East coast cyclogenesis on March 6-7, with significant snow possible in western & northern New England.

LOTS OF METEOROLOGICAL CHANGES AHEAD - NEW ENGLAND!

2011-02-28T14:02:00.005-05:00

For those hearty-New Englander's who like Winter, I hope you truly enjoy this week as the AO & NAO trend weakly Negative around March 2 to 5. After this, Significant changes will take place with the Five hundred-millibar Height Pattern. Lot's of weather ahead...

FEB. 27, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-02-27T21:26:00.101-05:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will become very weakly Negative around March 2-5. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast then brings the NAO neutral to increasingly Positive during the second week of March.
  The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will become very weakly Negative around March 2-5. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive during the second week of March.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) like the NAO, is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will become very weakly Negative around March 2-5. This indice forecast then brings the AO neutral to increasingly Positive during the second week of March.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will also become very weakly Negative around March 2-5. This indice forecast also brings the AO neutral to increasingly Positive during the second week of March. DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will weaken in a Negative state and become neutral around March 2-5. This indice forecast then appears to bring the PNA increasingly Negative during the second week of March.
   The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will become very weakly Negative to neutral around March 2-5. This indice forecast appears to bring the PNA weakly Negative around the second week of March. DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Negative around the first week of March. However, this indice forecast indicates that the EPO will become neutral to weakly Positive during the second week of March.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently moderately Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will weaken, but still be weakly Negative around the first week of March. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will become neutral to very weakly Positive during the second week of March.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will become neutral to very weakly Negative around March 2-5. This indice forecast then appears to bring the AAO increasingly Positive during the second week of March.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to brief important changes that will take place with these indices. The AO & NAO will become increasingly Negative during March 2-5, this will allow for a brief period of below normal temperatures as well as an increased threat for East coast cyclogenesis. There is a possible significant East coast storm threat around March 6-7, how this system affects New England is uncertain but key elements will be present. During this time-frame the AO & NAO will be weakening in a Negative state, and the PNA will trend neutral to very weakly Positive. The longwave pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will be in a state of change, which will aid-in fostering coastal development. After this System Exits - the available dynamics and energy within the Five hundered-millibar Height Pattern will be exhausted, with the remaining trough & Polar Vortex (PV) lifting Northeast. It is at this point when we can say "Goodbye" to the Winter Season 2010/11...

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: Even though La Nina continues to weaken and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is non-active, the overall Longwave pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will de-amplify and become Zonal. On Friday, I discussed the possibility of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) remaining in a Negative Phase. However, current Indice Forecasts from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) support the WPO to weaken toward neutral around March 6-7. As a result, it's clear that an intense Pacific jet-stream associated with strong Westerlies will drive across the northern United States with temperatures seasonal then above normal during March 8-13. Beyond this point, there is a strong potential for much Above normal temperatures in New England March 13-18, as the westerlies in concert with the Pacific jet-stream strengthens in reaction to a complete de-amplification of the Longwave pattern across the Northern Hemisphere.  In-return, the WPO & EPO will become increasingly Positive.

AFTER NEXT WEEKS COLD BLAST - WILL WINTER TRULY BE OVER? (NEW ENGLAND)

2011-02-25T20:40:00.003-05:00

I have talked about intense amplification with the longwave pattern briefly around Feb. 28 to March 5, due to Teleconnection support for an increasingly Negative NAO during this time-frame. I also stated that around March 6-8 temperatures would moderate to seasonal levels, as the pattern de-amplifies and the NAO becomes neutral to weakly Positive. If you have been following the WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW - last updated on Sunday Feb. 20, you are aware that a major pattern change will take place by March 8-10. But, will this change truly mark the end of the Winter Season 2010/11? To answer this question I would like to look at the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division), which indicates that the WPO will become neutral to very weakly Positive around the beginning of March. However, what also is note worthy is that the indice is then forecasted to become increasingly Negative around the second week of March. When the WPO is Negative, High pressure builds through the west-central Pacific. This in-return serves as a steering mechanism for the Eastern Pacific Oscillation, (EPO) due to the eastward expanding High pressure ridge. Which would strongly influence an increasingly Negative EPO, blocking the jet-stream from driving across the Pacific. Even though we may have Spring like conditions with an increasingly Positive AO & NAO around March 8-13, the strengthening Negative WPO may be giving us a hint that the March pattern could possibly be changing again - for the second half of the month. I will be following-up on this Later.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-02-24T13:44:00.010-05:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the indice at present neutrality, to become increasingly Negative briefly as we approach next week. Today I would like to focus closely on the upcoming week, the Surface map above from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) shows an area of intense Low pressure over Illinois on Monday, Feb. 28. This area of low pressure is associated with a deep trough carving through the Nation's Mid-section, notice the building High over the Western United States. It is this intense amplification that I made reference to on FEB. 20 - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW, however there are some clearifications I need to make. Initially, I did state there would be a brief moderation in advance of intense amplification during Feb. 26 to March 3. After reviewing further information, I feel this change will happen around Feb. 28, after the dynamic area of low pressure moves to our west with wet snow mixing with and changing to rain on Monday with moderating temperatures. After the moderation temperatures will begin to fall, with rain changing back to snow as the system moves to the northeast. The doors will then be open for a brief increasingly Negative NAO during March 1-5. Winter is not over... Yet, New England!

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN-RELATION TO THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO)

2011-02-22T17:56:00.004-05:00

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is changes in equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere. (Defined partially From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.) The map above from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) demonstrates Two Phases of the QBO, which are termed East QBO & West QBO. The relationship between oscillating wind regimes and High Latitude Blocking is significant, due to changes between the easterlies & westerlies. The Easterly Phase QBO encourages high latitude blocking because westerly trade winds are weaker, while the Westerly Phase is not supportive of long-term blocking due to stronger westerlies. On February 28 to March 1, 2010 a major longwave pattern change took place over the Northern Hemisphere. This major change was also associated with a change from an East QBO to West QBO, which resulted in a complete different summer pattern during 2010 in contrast to 2009. The QBO has primarily been in a Westerly phase since the beginning of last March, which in return discourages a long-term Negative AO & NAO (associated with a classic old-fashioned March in New England.)

FEB. 20, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-02-20T22:30:00.004-05:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The NAO GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will become weakly Negative by the end of this month. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast then brings the NAO neutral to increasingly Positive around the first week of March.
  The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will become neutral by the end of this month. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will remain neutral to very weakly Positive around the first week of March.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) like the NAO, is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will become neutral to weakly Positive by the end of February. This indice forecast then brings the AO increasingly Positive around the first week of March.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will become neutral to weakly Positive by the end of February. This indice forecast also brings the AO increasingly Positive around the first week of March.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will weaken in a Negative state by the end of February. This indice forecast then appears to bring the PNA increasingly Negative around the first week of March, but later indicates pronounced weakening.
   The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently weakly Negative. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will briefly weaken in a Negative state by the end of February. This indice forecast then appears to bring the PNA increasingly Negative around the first week of March.
  The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will become moderately Negative by the end of February. However, this indice forecast indicates that the EPO will weaken in a Negative state and become neutral to very weakly Positive around the first week of March.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will become weakly to moderately Negative by the end of February. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will remain Negative, but weaken slightly around the first week of March.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will become neutral by the end of February. This indice forecast then appears to bring the AAO increasingly Positive around the first week of March.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the WPO & EPO for the Extended Outlook, due to important trends with these indices. The EPO is currently weakly Negative and will become increasingly Negative during the extended time frame. The WPO is currently very weakly Negative and will also become increasingly Negative during the extended period. This means significant changes have occurred over the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific. As the EPO (WPO) ridge intensifies and the Indice becomes weakly to moderately Negative, heights will rise over western North America.
I personally believe that the PNA will weaken toward neutral around Feb. 26, as a result of intense amplification over the eastern Pacific.These changes will briefly allow for an increasingly Negative AO & NAO, to the east of the strengthening eastern Pacific (West coast) ridge around Feb. 26 to March 3. During this time-frame is the strongest probability of below normal temperatures and East coast cyclogenesis or storms for the season, as we Enjoy the Last Punch - of Winter in New England!

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: Even though La Nina continues to weaken and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is non-active, changes will still take place. The "east-based" Negative NAO (allowing for seasonal temperatures in New England) will weaken significantly after loosing Teleconnection support around March 4-7, then completely absorbed by the Polar Vortex (PV) as it shifts to the North. This will be the exit of the Winter Season 2010/11, right before our eyes. By March 8-16 temperatures will be seasonal to above normal as the westerlies drive the Pacific jet-stream across North America.

Outdoor Survival Skills Survival Supplies, And Tips

2011-02-19T13:10:00.000-05:00

By Ben Kingston

With an unknown future, one must be prepared. With the collapse of world currencies and the predilection of war around the corner is daunting; the future seems up for grabs.

Look at the conditions in Europe prior to WW1. Europe was rich, it was an economic strongman. Germany was advanced culturally, relatively pacifistic and an all-around stable nation. It had a history of being less involved in war than any of the neighboring nation in Europe. This era was about to embark and keep continuing in great and noble advances for the nation and mankind. However, complete chaos broke down any chance of forward progress when Word War 1 began.

Our era is not any different. Governments are growing more fascistic, bailing out banks, seizing sectors of the economy, bailing out politically connected companies formulating unsustainable debts loads for citizens. There is a danger of mass currency collapses, a breakdown of the markets and civil unrest could lead to civil war. Also the potentiality of beginning a war is a ploy used to another way out turning a different direction. Statist powerbrokers will find an excuse, false flags, provocations, etc to force a war.

We are warned by the Discovery Channel about natural disasters originating outside the earth as well. Similarly, in case of an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) from a weaponized high-altitude electromagnetic pulse explosion, gasoline, paper money, transportation will disappear. It's bad news for pacemakers.

Non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) from super solar flares from the sun and result in a geo-magnetic tempest are another probability. Computers would not work. Satellites would cease to function, no TV, radio, phones and any device, plane or car with computer chips in their system will not function. It will be every man for himself. Starvation, disease and random violence would likely claim millions of lives. A survival food supply is a fundamental necessity.

If we have a large non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse resulting from a super solar flare like the one that occurred back in 1859 (the 1859 Carrington event) , that would shut down the whole grid for quite a long time. Some estimate the damage between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in damages, and living could be terrible if in fact you were without electricity for any length of time. With survival kits to make life possible, you survive.

Prevention is better than cure. After the disaster, you'll be left short if you are not prepared. Start out with a survival pack or storage area that contains emergency food supplies as well as water resources.

About the Author:

Survival in the event of a disaster or complete anarchy is largely based on individual preparation and one can even order survival kits online. Government has created a mess out of its programs. You'll need a survival food supply and may even need to brush up on outdoor survival skills to weather any possible storm throw your way.

ENJOY THE LAST PUNCH - OF WINTER! (NEW ENGLAND)

2011-02-18T20:55:00.004-05:00

This chart from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows when and at what longitude High Latitude Blocking was most pronounced. You can clearly see the change to a Positive AO & NAO pattern as the blocking (over eastern North America) has significantly weakened and collapsed during Feb. 6-16. As present changes with the Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Pattern take place, the EPO which is currently trending toward neutral will become Negative. I expect the EPO to become weakly Negative by Feb. 20, which will allow for falling heights to the east of the building Gulf of Alaska & eastern Pacific ridge as the AO becomes increasingly Negative. During Feb. 21-24 the pattern will amplify as the trough expands to the east with the strengthening Negative AO & NAO, temperatures will be seasonal then below normal. I believe the pattern will peak in it's overall amplification between Feb. 26 to March 3, however there will be some brief moderation before the peak in amplification. It is during this period when there is the strongest probability of below normal temperatures, and East coast cyclogenesis or storms. During March 5-10 the Negative NAO will loose Teleconnection support and weaken to "east-based," then later become neutral to increasingly Positive. By March 10-15 it appears the westerlies will become quite pronounced, with the Polar Vortex (PV) shifting north and the Negative NAO completely absorbed.

Is Your Family Prepared For A Natural Disaster?

2011-02-17T18:15:00.000-05:00

By Bobby Ugene Johnathis

There are a lot of things in this world that are definitely dangerous. Some of these things we know little about, or when they could occur. The same is true with man made or natural disasters. These could happen at any moment and it is crucial to know some tips on preparing for a man made or natural disaster to increase the chances of your survival.

Prior to acknowledging the many different strategies to implement within your day-to-day life, you must realize that cost should not be an issue. These things are not expensive and they can be done by any average person as long as you find the best deals.

The most important item you must have is water. It is a good idea to measure out about six gallons per family member, and hold them in a specific safe location. You should also prepare this location with food. Only invest in nonperishable items such as canned goods. Just make sure you get enough and that you have the tools you need to eat.

Also, make certain you have an appropriate container for necessities. It should be made out of a thick, heavy material and waterproof. It might be a good idea to bolt this to the floor. Regardless, you will need to fill it with batteries, clothing, and flashlights; along with anything else you feel is important to have on hand.

It is also a good idea to store other important health-related items within this container. A first-aid kit containing pain relievers, headache medicine, burn ointment, Band-Aids, and gauze pads is highly suggested to have. As is medication that one of the members of your family may need. For instance, asthma medication should be held within this case.

While the entire location is prepared with items and emergency equipment, it is crucial to have access to that area. The last thing you want is to be cut off from the one area in your home that is efficiently prepared after all. To prevent this from happening, make sure you select an area that is easy to get to for the entire family and that there is no clutter in the way of it.

In terms of your family, you are going to want to ensure each and every individual knows how to use a fire extinguisher correctly. You may also want to practice with your family the process you would go through if a disaster occurred.

These catastrophes can happen at any second. Even though your home is fully prepared in the event of a natural or man made disaster, the other areas of your life are not. Take a moment to examine your workplace and research what safety precautions you can enforce there. Your car should always have a half tank of gas and be in pristine condition. Make sure you have flashlights, Band-Aids, and a first-aid kit in it.

It is important to understand these tips on preparing for a man made or natural disaster and implement them within your daily lifestyle. Such events could happen at any second and any location in the world. It is pivotal to take the correct precautions necessary and ensure you and your family is safe.

About the Author:

Earthquake preparedness is a vital part of living in an earthquake prone area. Storing water, food and other items may mean the difference in being a refugee or a victim. Plan accordingly so that you do not become another statistic. Survival food is a cheap and readily available to all.. Free reprint available from: Is Your Family Prepared For A Natural Disaster?.

POSITIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO) PATTERN - WILL SOON WEAKEN

2011-02-16T20:56:00.005-05:00

I would like to examine the jet-stream configuration over western North America, by examining this jet-stream map from NOAA's NWS - Seattle, WA. It is of interest to note the clear defined trough over the eastern Pacific, which is the area I will be watching as heights build as a result of the weakening Positive EPO. Once this happens, the Broad Upper Trough will be replaced with Upper Ridging over the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific as the EPO becomes Negative. As heights rise in the West, they will fall in the East with the return of the Negative AO. This change will happen in stages, with the first being the return of seasonal temperatures around Feb. 20-24. It is after Feb. 25 when I believe Winter will truly return in New England, as the AO & NAO become increasingly Negative.

Do You Know The Difference Between Weather And Climate?

2011-02-15T20:37:00.000-05:00

By Andreas Sosadi

What's the difference between weather and climate? And why is it important to you?

You may not think about it, but weather and climate have a huge bearing on how we live. Here is an overview of how weather and climate work.

We humans want to understand how the world works. We have always watched weather conditions, the day-to-day temperature, pressure and precipitation changes. As we compared those conditions over long periods of time (that is, more than 30 years), we establish the climate, the average conditions for that region: temperature, pressure, precipitation, amount of sunshine and cloud, wind speed and direction etc.

Many countries have weather data up to 200 years old. That may sound like a lot, but it is really miniscule when we realize that climate changes may take place over thousands of years. However, by studying such information, we now know a lot more about weather and climate.

In order to understand the data that has been collected over the years, it is important to classify it. For example, we now have established global climate zones. These are bands circling the globe based on latitude. These zones are: the Polar Regions, the high altitudes, Artic and Antarctic Circles, the middle latitudes, the low latitudes and the Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer.

Each zone has its own particular conditions, including seasonal activity and precipitation. For example, the Polar Regions have long, cold winters and summers that are only slightly warmer. However, the middle latitudes have four seasons with varying temperatures. The low latitudes are humid because they get a lot of rainfall and a lot of the sun's heat.

Each of these zones has variations within it. There may be continental and maritime regions depending on the land masses within the zones. Continental regions are those with large land masses, while maritime regions are those with large bodies of water. Such conditions affect whether a region is hotter or colder, wetter or drier than surrounding areas.

While these classifications help explain and predict weather, other factors must be taken into account. Mountains, as an example, can greatly affect weather patterns. Also, a natural catastrophe such as a volcanic eruption can change a region's climate for years to come.

By studying these classifications, we not only can predict weather, but we can also understand how to invent things to make our lives easier. By understanding wind, we were able to invent the vacuum cleaner. By understanding the electricity in storms, we were able to harness electricity for lighting and other uses.

When you stop to think about it, weather and climate are probably the most important factors in our world. Wouldn't it be wise to learn more about these subjects and understand how our world works?

About the Author:

Andreas Sosadi pens almost entirely for http://www.alicante-spain.com , a website on temperatures in malaga today and malaga temperature. On his site you can discover his comments on malaga temperature and past weather in malaga.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

2011-02-15T17:57:00.003-05:00

Current NAO Highlights are for the Indice to weaken from a present strength of around +0.5, the NAO will become neutral by the end of the week. However, I would like to look at the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) which is moderately Positive. The EPO at a current strength of around +2.0, will weaken as significant changes take place over the eastern Pacific from this point on. The map below from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) demonstrates the affects of a Positive EPO on North America.

FEB. 13, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

2011-02-13T21:11:00.015-05:00

"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

  The NAO GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will become neutral to weakly Negative by the third week of February. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast brings the NAO increasingly Negative around the last week in February (which prevailed for much of this winter so far.)
  The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will become neutral by the third week in February. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative around the last week in February.

  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) like the NAO, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will become very weakly Negative by the third week of February. This indice forecast then brings the AO increasingly Negative briefly, then weakening around the last week in February.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly to moderately Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will become neutral to very weakly Negative by the third week of February. This indice forecast then appears to completely brake-down the pattern, with the AO becoming neutral to increasingly Positive around the last week in February.

  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will significantly weaken in a Negative state by the third week of February. This indice forecast then appears to bring the PNA increasingly Negative around the last week in February.
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently moderately Negative. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will maintain a moderate Negative state by the third week of February. This indice forecast appears to keep the PNA in a pronounced Negative Phase around the last week in February.
  The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly to moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will become neutral to weakly Negative by the third week of February. However, this indice forecast indicates that the EPO will become neutral to very weakly Positive around the last week of February.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will become neutral to very weakly Negative by the third week of February. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will remain neutral to very weakly Negative, during the last week of February.

  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly to moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will become neutral to very weakly Negative by the third week of February. This indice forecast then appears to keep the AAO neutral around the last week of February.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: I am focusing on the EPO & AO for the Extended Outlook, due to important changes that will happen with these indices. The EPO is currently moderately Positive but will become neutral to weakly Negative during the extended time frame. The AO is currently weakly to moderately Positive and will become neutral to very weakly Negative during the extended period. This means significant changes will take place over the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific. As the EPO becomes neutral to weakly Negative a ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the eastern Pacific, as the ridge expands to the east a trough will be carved on it's eastern flank. This will be the steering mechanism to bring the AO back toward Negative, which in return will allow for seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures (in New England) around Feb. 20-23, as High Latitude Blocking returns.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: During this period signals with teleconnections spread significantly, but before that happens the NAO will become increasingly Negative due to changes with the AO (it's parent steering mechanism.) It appears that the NAO will become weakly Negative or stronger around Feb. 26 to March 5. It is important to note that because there is teleconnection support with the EPO & AO, the return of the Negative NAO will be initially "west-based." With High Latitude Blocking returning over Greenland due to the increasingly Negative NAO, leads to a strong potential of East coast cyclogenesis or storm probability with below normal temperatures. After March 5th is when there is significant spread with teleconnections which I will discuss later.

NAO NOW CHANGING PHASES - NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY POSITIVE

2011-02-10T17:38:00.002-05:00

The change is now taking place, with the NAO becoming neutral then changing phases. The map above from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) demonstrates two phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Even though La Nina conditions have prevailed this Winter in the Western Pacific basin, I feel NOAA's map titled "El Nino" will be more representative of the upcoming pattern. To support my conclusions I will point out the Eastern Pacific Oscillation, (EPO) which is now increasingly Positive. This simply means that the strong high that prevailed in the Gulf of Alaska, has drifted and weakened allowing for an area of spinning low pressure to replace it. However, this new pattern is not the end of Winter! I will talk about this with my complete review of the Indices on Sunday.

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS CORRECTION

2011-02-08T12:37:00.002-05:00

Current NAO Highlights from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) Ensembles shows that the NAO is weakly Negative. The ESRL (PSD) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO, at a current strength of around -1.0 will become increasingly Positive through Valentine's Day.

WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION?

2011-01-27T21:06:00.059-05:00

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is part of an overall High-Latitude Atmospheric Blocking scheme, which oscillates between a North-South Center dipole of two anomalies. When the NAO is in a Negative Phase or North Centered, an intensifying high pressure anomaly center becomes established over the *southern-tip of Greenland... commonly referred to as the Greenland Block (see below). Which in-return blocks, buckles the jet-stream (upper-air flow) from moving straight west to east... establishing a Meridional north to south flow. Sending air of polar origin south into middle latitudes of eastern North America & western Europe. *The Negative NAO influence is often noted as West-based or East-based, and although the overall -NAO loading-pattern effects New England with below to well below normal temperatures...where the blocking takes place in the North Atlantic is important. The West-based -NAO directly impacts New England, as a result of the blocking high pressure anomaly center near or just off the southern-tip of Greenland. This pattern, teleconnecting with the Arctic Oscillation (AO)... often produces text-book Nor' Easters. As a result of a deep trough associated with an intense cold High to the north... that often becomes negatively-tilted as the downstream lifts-up along the U. S. Eastern Seaboard. The East-based -NAO effects are less pronounced over New England... due to the blocking high pressure anomaly to the east of Greenland. This pattern is still associated with below normal temperatures, however it usually does not teleconnect with the Arctic Oscillation... allowing it's influence to be short-lived. Also, with the High further east... the downstream trough is also further east, that is positively-tilted. In return, this significantly limits development along the U. S. Eastern Seaboard & promotes any low-pressure system that does develop... to move East-northeast from the East Coast.
  When an intensifying high pressure anomaly center builds off the southeastern United States coast or near Bermuda... commonly referred to as the Bermuda High, the NAO is in a Positive Phase or South Centered. Unlike the Negative Phase, the Positive Phase enhances the westerlies... establishing a zonal west to east orientation of the jet-stream, preventing buckling. Allowing for a pronounced south to southwest flow... at all levels of the atmosphere in middle latitudes.

Other steering mechanism's within the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) strongly influence the NAO. The AO also exhibits a Negative and Positive Phase, acting in the same manner as the NAO but on a larger-scale that significantly influences the 500-millibar Height Pattern over central and eastern North America. Both the AO & NAO are part of the Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection (Longwave) Pattern, and are observed through current trends & Indice Forecasts (of Operational Models & perspective Ensemble Members) from NOAA's - NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the United Kingdom. Each indice forecast from it's perspective model measures the AO & NAO in respect to normal-mean by a measure of variability called Standard Deviation (SD)... defined by Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia.

The graphic above from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) - demonstrates the NAO in a classic Positive Phase.

The graphic below from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) & NCEP - demonstrates the NAO in a classic Negative Phase.

In meteorological history the NAO was originally identified in the 1920's by British Meteorologist Sir Gilbert Walker, with particular attention placed on sea-level pressure changes in the North Atlantic, as a result of low pressure over Iceland and building high pressure through the Azores.

The purpose of New England NAO (NE-NAO)... established January 27, 2011 is to educate and inform the public of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), by examining current trends and indice forecasts that will impact the New England region.

On Christmas Day, December 25, 2011, New England NAO became a Memorial to the New England Region. Dedicated in loving memory of my cousin... Peter Christopher Rowley (1961 - 2011) formerly of Pittsfield, MA., who recognized my true purpose in-life and was taken from us so soon.