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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative January 26-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will remain weakly Negative January 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative January 26-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will remain weakly Negative January 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive January 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be neutral... trending increasingly Positive February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive January 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be neutral... trending increasingly Positive February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive... trending neutral January 26 to February 3. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be neutral to weakly Negative February 4-7.
The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Negative... trending neutral to very weakly Positive January 26 to February 3. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 4-7.
The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Positive January 26-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral... trending increasingly Negative February 1-10.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Due to rapid changes in the eastern Pacific in association to increased Phase 5 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity... the pattern has again become progressive. These changes will limit classic blocking from taking place in-relation to establishment of a true -AO & -NAO pattern... allowing for milder systems to effect New England. The Polar Vortex has shifted over northwestern Canada & Alaska... allowing for above normal temperatures in New England January 26-28. The 500-millibar Height Pattern in association to increasing MJO activity will promote a strengthening Positive EPO, but significant changes will occur again... as the intense MJO influence weakens, entering Phase 6 February 2-4. Temperatures will average seasonal... as MAJOR changes take place within the overall longwave pattern January 29 to February 2. These changes will promote a re-establishment of the Negative WPO/EPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... that will encourage an overall
-AO / -NAO pattern beyond February 4.
LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: A strengthening upper-level ridge will build over the east-central Pacific... as southeastern Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies significantly cool due to progression of the Phase 6-7 MJO. In reaction, the Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) will become increasingly Positive... as the existing Polar Vortex over Northeastern Alaska & the Yukon shifts east February 2-4. This significant change will encourage the AO to trend increasingly Negative as the Vortex becomes re-established over east-central Canada. The 500-millibar Height Pattern will feature a highly amplified meridional flow... encouraging a deep trough over eastern North America, that will promote below to well below normal temperatures in New England February 6-14. During this period, intense amplification will also encourage the NAO to fall Negative... significantly increasing the possibility of classic coastal development February 5-15. - Prepared by: Daniel Viens
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